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Public Perception vs Sportsbook Reality
After all, most sports bettors get into gambling in the first place because they are fans at heart who already have a rooting interest in the game and want to make money from their passion.
With this knowledge on their side, sportsbooks can then shade their lines against favorites with point spread betting and OVERs with totals wagering, knowing that many bettors will often play them blindly.
Especially popular public picks will also move the line by a half-point or more, offering even more value to those going against them in these situations.
Numbers Don't Lie – Fading the Public is Profitable
In the NFL over the past eight seasons, games in which 75 percent of the public is on one side lost roughly 53-54 percent of the time, obviously meaning that fading them has resulted in more wins than losses.
In college football, road teams receiving a high percentage of the public's betting action also make excellent fades.
If you bet against road teams that received 77 to 80 percent of wagers over that same time period, you would have won about 56 percent of the time.
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